Monday Night Football is a double feature in Week 4, with the undefeated Seattle Seahawks coming to Motown to meet the Detroit Lions in the 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff.
Seattle has played soft competition to get its 3-0 record, but our Seahawks vs. Lions predictions expect the visitors to rise to the occasion against the Leos. Find out more in my NFL picks for this September 30 tilt.
Seahawks vs Lions predictions
Early spread leanSeahawks +4.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
My analysisIf you read my early Cowboys vs. Giants predictions, you already know the importance of a four-point spread. If not, here goes.
Outside of the standard key numbers of three, six, seven, and 10 in NFL betting, a four-point spread is the next most important spread, with close to 5% of final scores landing on that margin.
It’s a funny spread, hinting oddsmakers believe the favorite is a good team but not good enough to be favored by 5.5 or six. So don’t poo-poo the value of getting an underdog on the other side of four, like we have with the Seattle Seahawks at +4.5.
The Seahawks haven’t really been tested, but it appears Mike Macdonald has injected the defense with the same intensity that made Baltimore the best stop unit in the land. Seattle is No. 2 in EPA allowed per play, No. 1 in success rate allowed (34.8%), and Top 5 in Defensive DVOA — which accounts for the strength of opponent.
Offensively, Seattle can do damage through the air and on the ground, especially if RB Kenneth Walker comes back in Week 4. He’s sat out the past two games with an oblique injury, and the extra day for MNF gives him a good shot at suiting up against the Detroit Lions.
A positive update on Walker could knock this spread down to Lions -4 later in the week.
Early Over/Under leanOver 47.5 (-114 at FanDuel)
My analysisThe Seahawks’ stellar stats on defense will take a hit against Detroit. The Lions may not be blowing up scoreboards, but they appear to have figured out the red zone woes, and a return home in prime time is the push this attack needs.
Detroit is third in success rate per play (49.3%) and second in average first downs per game, which feels like the levee is about to break in terms of scoring. The Lions outgained Arizona by almost 100 yards and were 2-for-2 in the red zone in Week 3 but walked away with only 20 points.
As for Seattle’s offense, Geno Smith is always a threat to strike deep and his receiving corps is loaded with home run hitters. He hasn’t been asked to push the ball downfield much — with the team protecting late leads in two of three games — but we could see Geno unleashed should the Lions strike early.
Smith sees significant splits when coming indoors, with his passer rating spiking to almost 120.0 and an average of almost 10 yards per pass attempt under a dome. He’s completed better than 73% of passes vs. an outdoor rate below 63%.
Detroit’s secondary sits 21st in EPA allowed per dropback and has allowed the eighth most total air yards through three weeks of football.
These teams clashed in Week 2 last season, with Seattle winning a 37-31 OT thriller inside Ford Field in which Smith passed for 328 yards, blowing away the closing total of 47.5 points.
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Seahawks vs Lions live odds
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